Why I love Sen. Evan Bayh

Sen. Evan Bayh (D-IN) lays out of case for why Lieberman should be allowed to remain in the Democratic Caucus. Sen. Bayh suggests that Sen. Lieberman should keep his chairmanships as long as he apologizes for criticizing Barack Obama.

I completely agree with Sen. Bayh on this issue. Lieberman has voted the party line on virtually every issue. There should be no reason to punish him for expressing his beliefs and going against the party.

Some general thoughts about the election

1. Looks like race wasn’t a negative for Obama after all (like I had mentioned previously), exit polls showed race ending up as a net positive for Obama.
2. We didn’t see such a big increase in turn out after all – probably because of a depressed GOP morale or maybe supporters on both sides thought the election was in the bag for Obama.
3. Polling is erratic – The Alaska Senate race is a wonderful example of this. Mark Begich was leading with double digits leading up to election. Begich is holding onto a very narrow lead (although Stevens led by a few thousand votes on election night) with some absentee ballots still left to go.
4. There is a big generational gap in America right now. Obama’s huge victory margin in California and the passage of Prop 8 is an excellent example of this. The passage of Prop 8 also shows that the Democratic coalition is complex and quite broad (It also shows Republicans have potential to make inroads using social issues as a driving factor).

Winners and Losers – Decision ’08

Like any other election season, we have seen political fortunes soar for some while some have suffered major setbacks to their political future. This post will explore the Winners and Losers (and those in between) of the Presidential campaign.

Winners

• Obama-Biden, Axelrod et al - Barring a couple of incidents, the Obama campaign was fantastic. It was run with a Bush-like discipline and a Clintonesque approach towards the media. Obama’s negative attacks was mainly under the radar (they were in the form of radio attacks) and the campaign managed to come off as “above the fray”.
• Tina Fey and late night comedy - Tina Fey nailed the Palin impersonations and the exposure added considerable boost to her career and brought in great promotion to 30 Rock. Palin also provided plenty of material for hosts of late night comedy shows.
• The Democratic Party - 4 years ago, the Democrats were in a horrible shape. Karl Rove was talking about a permanent Republican majority. But thanks to the wave elections of 2006 and 2008, Democrats are stronger than ever and the hands of Sen. Majority Leader Harry Reid and Speaker Nancy Pelosi are greatly strengthened. Sen. Chuck Schumer (D-NY) (head of DSCC) and Congressman Chris Van Hollen (D-MDs 8th) (head of DCCC) won rave reviews for a repeat performance (although Rahm Emmanuel was in charge of putting the Democrats back in power in the House 2006, Congressman Van Hollen was quite instrumental as well).

What to watch out for tomorrow

Nate Silver (of FiveThirtyEight) has an excellent post at Newsweek about what to watch out for tomorrow

In 2000 and 2004, the outcome of the presidential race was unknown into the wee hours of the morning (and indeed for several weeks thereafter in 2000). This time, it is possible that we will be able to guess the winner of the presidential race relatively early in the evening.

Mr. Silver does an excellent job of explaining how early (or late) we can find out who our next President is.

Besides the Presidential race, here are a few things to look out for tomorrow.

• The Coleman-Franken Race in Minnesota: This race has been exceptionally tight with neither side breaking away with a clear lead. We’re definitely seeing some Obama-Coleman voters, but it’s likely that Franken might benefit from some Obama coattails. If Democrats are to get a 60 seat filibuster proof majority, they need to win here. Minnesota is the true tossup for the Senate Elections.
• The Dole-Hagan Race in North Carolina: Hagan stands to benefit from the massive ground operation Sen. Obama has built up and the polls show Hagan having a slight lead (however these are from polls conducted before the “Godless” ads by Dole). Should Hagan win, this will be the first time since 1950 we’ll have neither a Dole, nor a Bush in elected office.
• The Chambliss-Martin Race in Georgia: I don’t think Martin might pull out an outright victory but he’s likely to benefit from Obama’s coattails more than any of the other individuals. It’s likely that Chambliss will not win 50% of the support, forcing the race to a run-off.

The importance of Virginia this election season

“I No Politics” has a pretty good post about the importance of Virginia here. But he fails to touch on many important points and the article is superficial at best.

I don’t think there’s necessarily a correlation between Warner’s advertising and the pro-Obama polling (as the article suggests). The wording is a bit unfortunate. There will be a lot of Warner-McCain voters (as clearly evidenced by the ~60 points Warner seems to be polling vs. the barely 50 points Obama has been able to muster). However like I reasserted many times in the past, Obama might benefit from the Warner coattails. Warner has incredible support in Southern Virginia (more so that Jim Webb and Tim Kaine – as evidenced by their rather razor sharp election margins), and he might make some voters comfortable enough with voting for a Democrat (even if that Democrat is significantly more liberal than Mark Warner).

Why the discussion on race benefits Sen. Obama

Many “pundits” have often cited the issue of race as one of the biggest detriments to Sen. Barack Obama’s presidential ambitions. But I respectfully disagree. In this article I hope to deconstruct the myth of the Bradley effect and lay out an argument for why Sen. Obama’s race benefits him.

1. The myth of the Bradley Effect - The Bradley Effect is a belief that white voters will claim to vote for the minority candidate but pull the lever for the white candidate. The name stems from former LA Mayor Tom Bradley who ran for Governor. Polls showed him with a slight lead, however he lost the election. Many pundits believe voters couldn’t bring themselves to vote for the African American candidate. The problem with this is, George Deukmejian’s (Deukmejian defeated Bradley) general election pollster claims that the internals showed the race too close to call. In fact, the media picked up on the supposed Bradley victory because the Mervin Field (the state’s top public pollster) predicted so. Not only does, research has shown that the Bradley Effect faded out some time in the mid-1990s.