What to watch out for tomorrow
Nate Silver (of FiveThirtyEight) has an excellent post at Newsweek about what to watch out for tomorrow
In 2000 and 2004, the outcome of the presidential race was unknown into the wee hours of the morning (and indeed for several weeks thereafter in 2000). This time, it is possible that we will be able to guess the winner of the presidential race relatively early in the evening.
Mr. Silver does an excellent job of explaining how early (or late) we can find out who our next President is.
Besides the Presidential race, here are a few things to look out for tomorrow.
- The Coleman-Franken Race in Minnesota: This race has been exceptionally tight with neither side breaking away with a clear lead. We’re definitely seeing some Obama-Coleman voters, but it’s likely that Franken might benefit from some Obama coattails. If Democrats are to get a 60 seat filibuster proof majority, they need to win here. Minnesota is the true tossup for the Senate Elections.
- The Dole-Hagan Race in North Carolina: Hagan stands to benefit from the massive ground operation Sen. Obama has built up and the polls show Hagan having a slight lead (however these are from polls conducted before the “Godless” ads by Dole). Should Hagan win, this will be the first time since 1950 we’ll have neither a Dole, nor a Bush in elected office.
- The Chambliss-Martin Race in Georgia: I don’t think Martin might pull out an outright victory but he’s likely to benefit from Obama’s coattails more than any of the other individuals. It’s likely that Chambliss will not win 50% of the support, forcing the race to a run-off.
If the Democrats win the above mentioned states (and win Alaska, Colorado, Virginia, New Mexico, Oregon and New Hampshire while retaining all of their seats), the Democrats will win a 60 seat filibuster proof majority in the United States Senate.
- The Murtha-Russell Race in Pennsylvania’s District 12: Sixteen-term incumbent Murtha (who also happens to be an expert of defense matters) would have cruised to a thumping victory given the current political climate, but Murtha’s comments about Western Pennsylvanian’s (calling them “racist” and “redneck”) might cost him his seat. In fact, we might see Pennsylvania actually voting in more Republican congressman than Democratic congressman this season.
I do think McConnel (R-Kentucky) and Wicker (R-Missippi) are likely to retain their seats however.
